Missouri Storm Models Say Trouble Friday, Forecasters Waver

It's man versus machine. The computer models say one thing while the human forecasters aren't so sure. One way or another, there's a better than average chance that Missouri will see some severe weather on Friday. How much and where depends on who you trust.

Let's begin with what the admittedly advanced weather models from Colorado State University show for the chances of severe storms on Friday. As you can see from their map, Missouri and especially the northeastern part of Missouri are in an area of risk for Friday, July 11, 2025.

Let's compare that with what the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center is showing for that same day.

I do expect that to change once we get a little closer to Friday, but as of this writing (July 8) the NOAA meteorologists are not confident enough in what they're seeing to start issuing advisories or warnings.

The computer models aren't the only things pointing toward storm possibilities for Missouri for Friday. Ryan Hall noticed that dewpoints over Missouri will be very high on Friday which means plenty of moisture in the atmosphere.

We'll know more in a day or so as more data starts rolling in for meteorologists to take a look at. I would not be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center puts at least parts of Missouri under a slight or even moderate risk for Friday by late Wednesday. I don't blame them for not getting on board until they have solid data to rely on. We'll find out soon enough if the computer models know what the humans don't.