Missouri & Illinois Face Severe Wind & Hail Threat Next Week

Missouri has had a rare window where there has been no real severe weather to deal with after waves of storms impacted the state earlier in Spring. That respite is about to end as Missouri and parts of Illinois now face a severe wind and hail threat in the coming week.

My wife, the meteorologist, alerted me to a new advisory from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center today. They rarely issue bulletins this many days away, but already have their eyes on what looks likely to develop over parts of Missouri and Illinois on Wednesday, June 18, 2025. This is their convective outlook for Wednesday afternoon into the early evening hours.

Why does the Storm Prediction Center think Missouri and Illinois could see severe wind and hail Wednesday?

The background discussion from NOAA forecasters makes several mentions of instability in the atmosphere on Wednesday. Here are their exact words about what they expect:

"Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening...The greatest potential for severe storms could be from northern Missouri...along and near the axis of a low-level jet."

As I write this, we're still more than 5 days out from when this severe weather event could happen. The further out these forecasts are issued, the more variables that could change in the models which might result in a different outcome. The bottom line is to plan on severe weather again in Missouri and Illinois in the middle of next week and hope it doesn't happen.